3 Mar 2014

「パット・イズ・マネー」はもう古い? // Golfweek


Golfweekのサイトで,同じくMark Broadieの分析についての記事を見つけた。こっちの方が読み応えがあった。

Golfweek "Analytics show putting's importance overstated"

Mark Broadie & Sean Foley

The pair were on the stage at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference to give a lecture called, "Every Shot Counts: Using Analytics to Improve your Golf Performance." A better title might have been something like R.E.M.'s 1987 hit, "It's the End Of The World As We Know It."

「パット・イズ・マネー,ドライブ・イズ・ショー」とわれわれが思っていた世界は,終わりを告げるかもしれないと。"The pair" というのは Mark Broadie と Sean Foley(ハンター・メイハンやジャスティン・ローズ,あるいはタイガー・ウッズのコーチとしておなじみ)のことで,このふたりが  "Every Shot Counts: Using Analytics to Improve your Golf Performance." と題したレクチャーを行なった……,というのでピンときたけど,このBroadie教授の本は,前から興味があったやつだった。


"I want to attack what I think is one of the biggest misconceptions in golf," Broadie began. "Conventional wisdom says that putting is the most important part of the game, and what I mean by most important is the number of shots that separates the winner of a tournament from everybody else, or from the best players to the average players."


Keep in mind that it was Broadie who is credited with developing strokes gained-putting, the PGA Tour's stat, debuted in 2011, that measures how much better or worse a golfer performs on the green from a given distance when compared with the PGA Tour average.

留意したいのは,Broadieというのは,2011年からPGAツアーのスタッツとして用いられている strokes gained-putting (ツアー平均と比較してホールまでの距離別のパットの良し悪しをまとめた指標)を開発した人。(そのBroadie自身が,パットの意義は過大評価されているという発表をしたところが面白い)

From 2004-12, Luke Donald, Brad Faxon and Tiger Woods led the PGA Tour in strokes gained-putting, which should surprise almost no one. However, Jasper Parnevik, Brian Gay and Loren Roberts tied for sixth (0.062), followed by Bryce Molder (0.58) and Ben Crane (0.56). Not exactly a Murder's Row of PGA Tour winners and major contenders.

2004年から2012年のあいだ,ルーク・ドナルドやタイガー・ウッズなどがstrokes gained-puttingの上位に来たが,これは驚くべきことではない。しかし,Jasper Parnevik や Brian Gay などもこのランキングで上位に来ているけど,彼らはツアーで勝っているわけじゃない。

Using the same methodology that produced strokes gained-putting, Broadie has now also developed strokes gained-driving for tee shots on par 4s and par 5s; strokes gained-approach for shots of more than 100 yards that are not tee shots; and strokes gained-short game for shots of less than 100 yards, excluding putts. Add them together and you get total strokes gained.

strokes gained-putting を算出しているのと同じ方法論で,BroadieはPar4とPar5ホールにおけるティーショットの strokes gained-driving を開発した。さらに,ティーショット以外で残り100ヤード以上のショットに対する strokes gained-approach,パット以外の100ヤード以内のショットに対する strokes gained-short game も算出。これらを足し合わせて,total strokes gained が出る。

From 2004-12, here the top 10 players in total strokes gained: Tiger Woods, Jim Furyk, Phil Mickelson, Luke Donald, Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Steve Stricker and Zach Johnson. That, not the putting stat, looks much more like a list of the players who saw their names on Sunday leaderboards.

この指標(total strokes gained)では,2004年から2012年,タイガー・ウッズやジム・フューリック,フィル・ミケルソン,ルーク・ドナルド,ヴィジェイ・シン,アーニー・エルス,セルヒオ・ガルシア,アダム・スコット,スティーブ・ストリッカー,そしてザック・ジョンソンといった,われわれが日曜日のリーダーボードでその名前を目にするプレーヤーたちが,上位に来る。

"When you break down their games, the average of these top 10 golfers gained 1.7 strokes per round against the field," Broadie said. Broadie then pointed out that as a group, the Terrific 10 averaged a gain of 0.3 strokes against the field off the tee, 0.7 strokes from the fairway and 0.4 strokes near the green. Their collective strokes gained-putting average was just 0.2 better than the PGA Tour average.


"So, basically, two-thirds of the strokes that they gained were from shots outside of 100 yards and one-third was from inside 100 yards," Broadie said. Putting accounted for just 15 percent of the scoring difference between the top 10 golfers in the world and the average PGA Tour pro."


In 2008, Tiger drained a 24-foot putt on the final hole to win at Bay Hill. When the ball dropped, Tiger whipped his hat to the ground and high-fived his caddie, Steve Williams. Sure, that putt won the tournament, but the Broadie's numbers reveal that Woods had a strokes gained-putting statistic of just 1.1 that week. What really won that tournament was his 2.5 strokes gained in the long game. Over four rounds, Tiger was 10 shots better than the field off the tee and from the fairway. Drive for show and putt for dough? Evidently not.

2008年,タイガー・ウッズはBay Hillの最終ホールで24フィートのロングパットを決めた(アーノルド・パーマー・インビテーショナルかな)。確かに勝負を決めたのはパットだったけど,Broadieの分析によると,パットでついた差は1.1打。勝利をもたらした本当の要素は,2.5打差をつけたロングゲームだった。つまり4日間で,タイガーはティーショットとフェ


"You know, so much of what we've been handed down through the years has been nostalgia," Foley said when he took center stage. Foley said that he bases practice sessions for his players based on data like Broadie presented in Boston. "From 30 yards, it takes the average PGA pro 2.52 strokes to get the ball into the hole. From 110, it's about 2.71, but every week on the PGA Tour you'll see people practicing from 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 yards out. Basically, it's a massive waste of time." Foley explained that when he first started getting exposed to analytics like Broadie's, he got excited and showed it to businessmen who were some of his clients. He said they were shocked that information like this was only now being created.


Broadie's new book, "Every Shot Counts" is due to hit bookstore shelves on March 6 and Foley wrote its forward. The swing coach says that it contains a lot of data-driven information that should help amateur players. While he noted that the overall message in the book the same as the lecture, they're not identical. "I see plenty of amateur players take two shots to get into a greenside bunker on a 420 yards par 4 hole, and then take three to get out," Foley said. "I think with the amateurs, they could still probably be better from 30 yards and in."

Broadieの新著『Every Shot Counts』は3月6日に発売され,Foleyがはしがきを書いている。Foleyいわく,この本にはアマチュアプレーヤーの助けにもなる,データにもとづいた情報がつまっている。カンファレンスでの発表と本の内容は全体的に近いけど,まったく同じというわけではない。「多くのアマチュアプレーヤーが,420ヤードのPar4で2打目をグリーンサイドバンカーに入れ,そこから出すのに3打かかってるのを見ている。アマチュアに関して言えば,もしかしたらいまだに30ヤード以内のショットに注力したほうがいいかもね」とFoley。

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